Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Driver-based three-statement model · 2009–2026 reported, 3 years forecast · generated 2026-10-23 19:25 UTC

Years reported

37/38

Checks passed

0.00

Worst balance gap

4.0%

Revenue error, 1yr

7.8%

Naive baseline

Nothing in the forecast is plugged. Cash is an output of the cash-flow statement and the balance sheet is assembled independently, so the identity check below is a real test of the model rather than a restatement of it. This is a modelling exercise, not investment advice.

Integrity checks

Status	Check	Expected	Observed
pass	`splice.revenue.Revenues` RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax <- Revenues	the two tags agree on every year they share	agree on all 10 overlapping years (2016-2025)
pass	`splice.cost_of_sales.CostOfGoodsSold` CostOfGoodsAndServicesSold <- CostOfGoodsSold	the two tags agree on every year they share	agree on all 2 overlapping years (2016-2017)
pass	`splice.cfo.NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations` NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities <- NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations	the two tags agree on every year they share	agree on all 4 overlapping years (2013-2018)
pass	`splice.cfi.NetCashProvidedByUsedInInvestingActivitiesContinuingOperations` NetCashProvidedByUsedInInvestingActivities <- NetCashProvidedByUsedInInvestingActivitiesContinuingOperations	the two tags agree on every year they share	agree on all 4 overlapping years (2013-2018)
pass	`splice.cff.NetCashProvidedByUsedInFinancingActivitiesContinuingOperations` NetCashProvidedByUsedInFinancingActivities <- NetCashProvidedByUsedInFinancingActivitiesContinuingOperations	the two tags agree on every year they share	agree on all 4 overlapping years (2013-2018)
pass	`gaps.revenue`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.cost_of_sales`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.sganda`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.operating_income`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.tax_expense`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.net_income`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.total_assets`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.total_liabilities`	no interior gaps	18 continuous years
pass	`gaps.equity`	no interior gaps	18 continuous years
pass	`gaps.cash`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.inventory`	no interior gaps	18 continuous years
pass	`gaps.receivables`	no interior gaps	18 continuous years
pass	`gaps.payables`	no interior gaps	18 continuous years
pass	`gaps.ppe_net`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.long_term_debt`	no interior gaps	18 continuous years
pass	`gaps.depreciation`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
pass	`gaps.capex`	no interior gaps	19 continuous years
info	`sourcing.vintage_alignment` a restated line paired with an un-restated one breaks the identity	every year already consistent across filings	1 year(s) realigned: 2014: realigned to 0000909832-15-000014 (total_assets 32,662,000,000 -> 33,024,000,000)
pass	`identity.balance_sheet.reported`	\|assets - (liabilities + equity + minority)\| <= 0.01	worst gap 0.00 in 2009
pass	`identity.balance_sheet.forecast`	\|assets - (liabilities + equity + minority)\| <= 0.01	worst gap 0.00 in 2028
pass	`identity.cash_flow`	CFO + CFI + CFF equals the change in cash	reconciles exactly
pass	`plausibility.driver.gross_margin`	within [0.0, 1.0]	0.1276
pass	`plausibility.driver.sganda_ratio`	within [0.0, 1.0]	0.0900
pass	`plausibility.driver.tax_rate`	within [0.0, 0.6]	0.2473
pass	`plausibility.driver.payout_ratio`	within [-2.0, 3.0]	0.5970
pass	`plausibility.driver.dso_days`	within [0.0, 180.0]	4.3058
pass	`plausibility.driver.dio_days`	within [0.0, 365.0]	28.2874
pass	`plausibility.driver.dpo_days`	within [0.0, 365.0]	31.0604
pass	`plausibility.driver.capex_intensity`	within [0.0, 0.5]	0.0199
pass	`plausibility.driver.revenue_growth`	within [-0.5, 1.0]	0.0778
pass	`plausibility.revenue_positive`	revenue stays positive	yes
pass	`plausibility.cash_not_negative`	cash never goes negative	yes
pass	`plausibility.equity_positive`	equity stays positive	yes

Forecast accuracy, measured

Stand at year T, fit drivers on history up to T, forecast forward, score against what the company went on to report. 13 origin years. The baseline is “next year looks exactly like this year”.

Line	Horizon	n	Model MAPE	Naive MAPE	Bias	Beats naive
revenue	1y	13	3.96%	7.76%	+0.22%	yes
revenue	2y	12	7.67%	14.82%	+0.98%	yes
revenue	3y	11	12.71%	21.74%	+1.16%	yes
net_income	1y	13	9.38%	10.97%	-8.95%	yes
net_income	2y	12	11.66%	21.12%	-11.58%	yes
net_income	3y	11	15.25%	30.21%	-13.99%	yes
total_assets	1y	13	5.65%	7.83%	-1.95%	yes
total_assets	2y	12	10.78%	14.52%	-2.84%	yes
total_assets	3y	11	14.98%	21.16%	-4.29%	yes

Drivers

Driver	Base	Upside	Downside
`revenue_growth`	0.0778	0.0978	0.0478
`gross_margin`	0.1276	0.1326	0.1176
`sganda_ratio`	0.0900	0.0870	0.0950
`interest_rate`	0.0278	0.0278	0.0278
`tax_rate`	0.2473	0.2473	0.2473
`dso_days`	4.3058	4.3058	5.3058
`dio_days`	28.2874	28.2874	31.2874
`dpo_days`	31.0604	31.0604	31.0604
`other_assets_ratio`	0.0351	0.0351	0.0351
`other_liabilities_ratio`	0.0841	0.0841	0.0841
`capex_intensity`	0.0199	0.0199	0.0199
`depreciation_rate`	0.0837	0.0837	0.0837
`payout_ratio`	0.5970	0.5970	0.5970

Statements

US$ millions. Italic rows are forecast.

Year	Revenue	Gross margin	Operating income	Net income	Cash	Total assets	Equity	CFO	Capex
2009	71,422	12.72%	1,777	1,086	3,157	21,979	10,024	2,092	1,250
2010	77,946	12.77%	2,077	1,303	3,214	23,815	10,829	2,780	1,055
2011	88,915	12.57%	2,439	1,462	4,009	26,761	12,002	3,198	1,290
2012	99,137	12.42%	2,759	1,709	3,528	27,140	12,361	3,057	1,480
2013	105,156	12.56%	3,053	2,039	4,644	30,283	10,833	3,437	2,083
2014	112,640	12.59%	3,220	2,058	5,738	33,024	12,303	3,984	1,993
2015	116,199	13.02%	3,624	2,377	4,801	33,017	10,617	4,285	2,393
2016	118,719	13.32%	3,672	2,350	3,379	33,163	12,079	3,292	2,649
2017	129,025	13.29%	4,111	2,679	4,546	36,347	10,778	6,726	2,502
2018	141,576	13.01%	4,480	3,134	6,055	40,830	12,799	5,774	2,969
2019	152,703	12.98%	4,737	3,659	8,384	45,400	15,243	6,356	2,998
2020	166,761	13.09%	5,435	4,002	12,277	55,556	18,284	8,861	2,810
2021	195,929	12.88%	6,708	5,007	11,258	59,268	17,564	8,958	3,588
2022	226,954	12.15%	7,793	5,844	10,203	64,166	20,642	7,392	3,891
2023	242,290	12.26%	8,114	6,292	13,700	68,994	25,058	11,068	4,323
2024	254,453	12.61%	9,285	7,367	9,906	69,831	23,622	11,339	4,710
2025	275,235	12.84%	10,383	8,099	14,161	77,099	29,164	13,335	5,498
2026	303,154	12.82%	11,685	9,226	20,207	89,045	35,803	15,817	6,435
2027	326,730	12.76%	12,281	9,162	18,554	95,135	39,495	10,320	6,503
2028	352,140	12.76%	13,236	9,881	19,917	103,140	43,477	14,271	7,009
2029	379,526	12.76%	14,265	10,655	21,446	111,769	47,771	15,445	7,554

What the forecast rests on — terminal net income

Driver	Shock	Down	Up	Swing
`gross_margin`	±0.01	7,799	13,512	53.6%
`sganda_ratio`	±0.005	12,084	9,227	26.8%
`revenue_growth`	±0.02	10,069	11,264	11.2%
`dio_days`	±5.0	10,655	10,655	0.0%
`dpo_days`	±5.0	10,655	10,655	0.0%
`capex_intensity`	±0.005	10,655	10,655	0.0%

What the forecast rests on — terminal cash

Driver	Shock	Down	Up	Swing
`capex_intensity`	±0.005	26,328	16,564	45.5%
`dio_days`	±5.0	25,982	16,910	42.3%
`dpo_days`	±5.0	16,910	25,982	42.3%
`gross_margin`	±0.01	18,264	24,628	29.7%
`sganda_ratio`	±0.005	23,051	19,841	15.0%
`revenue_growth`	±0.02	20,836	22,083	5.8%

Sources

Source	Status	Bytes	SHA-256
`companyfacts:909832`	200	3,694,553	`b675ced201b27ede`